The Hill Prints Op-Ed Saying Trump is Obviously Winning, All Non-Poll Factors Show Him Winning

Andrew Anglin

Guest


We’re all on edge here with a week left before the election.

We need to think positively. Don’t downplay the positive abilities of positive thinking.

The only reason we have to believe Trump won’t win is the polls. There is plenty of reason to believe the polls are totally and completely wrong.

Jonathan Jakubowski and Christos A. Makridis write for The Hill:

We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big.

While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it’s close, those polls suffer from at least three problems.

First, the tone of the questions.
There is significant evidence from behavioral psychology that suggests that the way a question is framed predetermines the range of potential answers. In fact, Gallup has found that respondents can answer very differently to questions with the same topic even in the same survey based on the language that’s used. And the use of metaphors can even dwarf the importance of pre-existing differences between Republicans and Democrats.

One of the reasons respondents do that is because of a tendency to give socially desirable answers, which was the case especially during the 2016 election. Most people don’t like confrontation, so the easiest, albeit not necessarily the best, solution is to avoid it. Right now, saying that you’re voting for Trump/Pence is often not the socially desirable answer. In fact, a recent poll by the Cato Institute suggests that nearly two-thirds of Americans say that the political climate is sufficiently harsh that they don’t want to give their genuine opinion about politics.

Second, the sample of respondents.
Who responds depends on many factors, including the medium (e.g., landline versus cellphone), the location, the sample size and demographic factors. Moreover, the pool of respondents is not necessarily the same as the pool of likely voters. Even though election polls all contain a margin of error, that margin of error is unreliable if the underlying sample does not reflect the population. Researchers have also identified self-screening as the major contributing factor to the polling failures during the 2016 election cycle.

For example, distrust of pollsters also leads to lower response rates for Trump supporters. Rasmussen finds that 17 percent of likely U.S. voters who “strongly approve” of the job President Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election.
By comparison, only 8 percent of those who “strongly disapprove” of the president’s performance say the same.

While proper sampling methodology matters more than the size, having a representative sample with enough people still helps considerably. Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group notes how their work to create minimum samples sizes of 1,000 voters, added to their work to doggedly pursue the “quiet Trump voter,” led to Trafalgar being one of the most successful battleground polling firms in the country in 2016. Cahaly explains that “we don’t do a state with less than a thousand. You see these polls, 400, 500, 600 people for a state. I don’t buy that. Your margin of error is far too high.”

Third, the content of the current news cycle.
What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states. For example, the recent revelation of Hunter Biden’s hidden emails on his laptop, coupled with the link to his father, has come at an opportune time for the president. Moreover, if the economic recovery continues, the good news may continue putting wind in Trump’s sails.

Admittedly, no poll is perfect. That’s why RealClearPolitics takes a step forward by “averaging out” these errors across polls. But “averaging out” only works when errors are made in both directions. Here, many polls make errors primarily in one direction, so the average will still reflect some of the biases that exist.
Their conclusion is: Trump win. Big Trump win.

Regarding all of the metrics outside of the polls, Scott Adams has some things to say about that.

Adams is a Trump cheerleader, but his analysis this morning of factors not related to polling showing a Trump win is worth consideration.

Trump is on a glide path to reelection, NXIVM update, Philly riots help Trump, Supreme Court, coffee https://t.co/bnoybI53BB

— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) October 27, 2020

He went through a list of signs (starting at 11:30 in the above video), showing that the polls are the only indicator saying that Trump is not winning:

  • Enthusiasm
  • Signage
  • Sitting president got more than 75% of primary votes
  • Trump is in the same place in the polls as he was against Hillary
  • He’s surging at the right time
  • New voter registration is heavily Republican
  • Trump’s ground game more aggressive
  • Biden is going to the wrong states (Georgia), not many places
  • High levels of black support for Trump
  • Suburban mothers will like Amy Coney Barrett
  • Incumbent advantage generally
  • Democrats split on packing the Supreme Court
  • Biden is decomposing – “Voting for Biden is like going into the woods at night for a hike with a flashlight with a dying battery,” -Joe Rogan (paraphrased)

It is clear to me that Trump is going to win.

I don’t have any doubt about that, right now.



What is not clear to me is if he will remain in the White House after he wins.

That is much less obvious.

We know that the Democrats are planning major voter fraud using mail-in ballots.

How successful will that be?

No one knows.

It depends primarily on how hard Trump actually wins on election night. If he wins really hard, that will mean he can credibly claim victory on the night of, and the ball is then passed to Democrats to start complaining and hoaxing.

So: stay positive.

If Trump is overthrown, we’ll figure out a new plan.

Continue reading...
 

CLM555

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1. Try to imagine how extreme the demoralization among liberals will be after this epic beatdown on nov 3rd. This will be two elections in a row where they're being told 99% chance Democrat victory but instead they are handed a 100+ point electoral landslide defeat.

Think of it in reverse, if in 2016 we are all told for months that a Trump victory is 99% certain then on election day Bernie sanders who isn't even on the ballot wins the election in a landslide. He then institutes nationwide communism with forced homosexuality for four years. Then in 2020 while living on the streets with sore buttholes from all the government rape, starving and eating our shoes we are told 99% Trump wins this time tho for real tho this time... HAHAHAHAHA!!!

there's gonna be some super funny emotional breakdowns guys, I'm gonna get some popcorn and just sit in front of the TV and computer for like at least a week after election day.


2. The Democrats are spending a shit ton of money on Senate elections this year they're running a coon named Mike espy in mississippi and there are like 10 commercials every hour on every channel for this negro. If they're doing this in mississippi (where a nigger democrat has exactly 0% chance of winning) they're probably doing this in every state. My point is maybe the Democrat party have just accepted a Trump win and are putting all their money into the house and senate races hoping to impeach or handicap Trump's second term.

1972 election was i think the biggest landslide in history but nixon was out of power really quick with the fbi/jewish watergate coup.
 

BiggusDickus

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Of course Trump is winning.
The only reason he would not win is if the massive election fraud by Democrats can overcome the will of the people.
The election fraud is not only ballot harvesting, manipulated voting machines, corrupt criminal vote counting, mass-importing of 3rd world people, and literally dead people "voting", it is also the extreme media manipulation of the people by most media outlets and of course Google, Facebook and Twitter.
What they are doing is way worse than any imaginary Russian meddling, and they should basically all get charged with High Treason for actively working to undermine the elected President of the US as well as undermine the democratic election process itself with their lies and propaganda.
 

swihch

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The Senate is where we also need to be watching very closely.

What good is a Trump landslide when he'll be powerless for 4 years under a Democrat controlled house and Senate?
Especially given that the Democrats would probably try to impeach him again, and with the Senate on their side they might have more momentum.
 

Louis_McFadden

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it is also the extreme media manipulation of the people by most media outlets and of course Google, Facebook and Twitter.
e·lec·tion·eer/əˌlekSHəˈnir/
gerund or present participle: electioneering
  1. (of a politician or political campaigner) take part actively and energetically in the activities of an election campaign.
This is by definition what these filthy jews are doing, and they've been doing it a long time, although now it's much more obvious than it was 30 or 40 years ago.
Any claim of objectivity went out the window a long time ago, and the Donald has brought this out more than anyone in recent memory.
These yids should all have been registered under the foreign agents registration act from day one, yet they are not to this day, nor is AIPAC or any of the myriad other jew groups meddling in our country and our government.

They're all too busy pointing at Russia, China, Iran, etc. with their "lets you and him fight" routine.
With jews you lose. It really is just that simple.
 

Donk

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The Senate is where we also need to be watching very closely.

What good is a Trump landslide when he'll be powerless for 4 years under a Democrat controlled house and Senate?
He won't be powerless. He'll have veto power, and much more.
 

Christopher

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People will believe what they want to believe.
I still can't fathom how Biden called for ending the Big Oil industry. That's more powerful than public opinion.
That's bigger than "normal" corruption in government. It's bigger than public opinion.
Biden picking a fight with Big Oil & Wall Street in public gets Trump another term. In my humble opinion.
 

Freedom Monk

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I often wonder what flavor of corruption we can expect to see on the election and the weeks after it and how strong it will be. Will the jew mainstream media just outright say "Nuh-Uh! Trump winning is election blood libel!"? Will Trump win in an election landslide on election day but over the following weeks the mail in vote fraud will be dialed up to maximum with "found votes" and the democrats will claim they have won? Will the election steal be so blatant and in your face that it is all the more brazen that the FBI or other organizations refuse to investigate it?

We are definitely going to have an interesting November here folks with the jew world order system hemorrhaging at the seems!

Biden picking a fight with Big Oil & Wall Street in public gets Trump another term. In my humble opinion.
It really depends on how vast and expansive this new world order conspiracy goes. The oil companies could very well be happy to make a pivot in their business model into other forms of energy if they are guaranteed an existence in the jew world order or just if they get to rule alongside the jews. I am sure those extremely shady businesses have tons of contingency plans to adapt to anyway in which the world turns.

I didn't remember them complaining much about AOC's "green new deal" insanity she and her party were cooking up last year.
 

TCA

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Actually, if I answer an unfamiliar #, and it's a polster or fundraiser, I enjoy saying things I hope they are uncomfortable with.
And nun-chucks are illegal!
 

TCA

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Idea for a reader poll:
What % DS (GU) commenters are actually Jewish IDF?
 

iHate_Marxism

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I haven’t answered a single text or phone call asking me who I’m voting for and I don’t plan to either.
 

Aquafina

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But I thought he could only win two times? Not anymore...
 

Christopher

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It really depends on how vast and expansive this new world order conspiracy goes. The oil companies could very well be happy to make a pivot in their business model into other forms of energy if they are guaranteed an existence in the jew world order or just if they get to rule alongside the jews. I am sure those extremely shady businesses have tons of contingency plans to adapt to anyway in which the world turns.

I didn't remember them complaining much about AOC's "green new deal" insanity she and her party were cooking up last year.
See, the UN-ambivalence of Biden's ultimatum to Big Oil is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. It's not llike a smooth-talking "Well we're looking at it closely" and "We need a group of experts to...."
THIS floored Mr Trump AND the DNC moderator who was like "Did you just say that?!?" I was astonished.
If you made a list of "Top 10 debate disasters" along with "We're gonna END Amazon's monopoly!" Biden hit it.
Corruption/kickbacks/nepotism? Pifft. He went over the heads of John Democrat and Bill Republican 'on the ground'.
He threatened PROFITS of BIG OIL - the bottom line.
 
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