Social Simulations

RedPillStormer

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A crucial component to simulations is called "Social Network Analysis"



I actually know a bit of theory on this, but because I can't find an article, I'll use my own words. By looking at the above graph, computers calculate "node weight", for example Gavriel D. has no friends, his node weight is 0, while Jonathan W has 4 friends, his node weight is 4.

But this is not all, what you can also do is look into "generations", which is "friends of friends". For example, if you Rachel M, you only have 2 friends, but those two friends have 7 friends each. By looking 2 generations down, you get 2 x 7 = 14.

You also have clusters, on the picture above there is 3 of them. People like Rachel M. are called "bridge builders" or something, because they connect two clusters together. If Rachel M. was to be removed, the communication between clusters would be down.

The CIA learned after using this node weight calculations that oftentimes it's not the terrorist cell leader with 5 followers that is worth chasing, but rather the middleman who has only 2 contacts but acts as a bridge-maker and connects the leader with weapons supply and other things, thus combining 2 clusters.

This system finds out channels on Youtube which act in this way (they are a common point of intersection for various unrelated groups), which results in "cross-polination" (2 clusters coming together). By using node weight calculations, the system can find influential people and make sure that they are prevented from ever growing too big (see Youtube algorithm).

The FBI has a system called Palantir, which builds this social network graphs by using cell phone GPS data, public cameras, social media posts, store purchases etc which it can access all at once in real time. The system not only finds your contacts, but also the contacts of your contacts and builds this node graph in real time, like the picture above and does all these calculations.


The company is known for three projects in particular: Palantir Gotham, Palantir Metropolis, and Palantir Foundry. Palantir Gotham is used by counter-terrorism analysts at offices in the United States Intelligence Community (USIC) and United States Department of Defense.In the past, Gotham was used by fraud investigators at the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, a former US federal agency which operated from 2009 to 2015. Gotham was also used by cyber analysts at Information Warfare Monitor, a Canadian public-private venture which operated from 2003 to 2012. Palantir Metropolis is used by hedge funds, banks, and financial services firms. Palantir Foundry is used by corporate clients such as Morgan Stanley, Merck KGaA, Airbus, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV.[9]

Palantir's original clients were federal agencies of the USIC. It has since expanded its customer base to serve state and local governments, as well as private companies in the financial and healthcare industries.

Offering software — and, crucially, teams of engineers that customize the software — Palantir helps organizations make sense of vast amounts of data. It helps gather information from various sources like internet traffic and cellphone records and analyzes that information. It puts those disparate pieces together into something that makes sense to its users, like a visual display.
Palantir, which was founded in 2003, has long described its technology as ideal for tracking terrorists, often embracing an unconfirmed rumor that it helped locate Osama bin Laden. The name Palantir is a nod to spherical objects used in the “Lord of the Rings” books to see other parts of fictional Middle-earth.
Funded in part by In-Q-Tel, the investment arm of the Central Intelligence Agency, the company built its flagship software technology, Gotham, with an eye toward use inside the C.I.A.
Palantir’s technologies can also help track the spread of the coronavirus, as it is now doing for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And they can help find undocumented immigrants, which is how Immigration and Customs Enforcement, under orders from the White House, is using these technologies, according to recently released federal documents.
In a letter to potential investors, included in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, Mr. Karp pointedly jabbed at fellow Silicon Valley companies and said he was proud of Palantir’s work with federal agencies.

“Our company was founded in Silicon Valley. But we seem to share fewer and fewer of the technology sector’s values and commitments,” he wrote. He added that “software projects with our nation’s defense and intelligence agencies, whose missions are to keep us safe, have become controversial, while companies built on advertising dollars are commonplace.”
In recent years, Palantir has tried to expand its work in the private sector, serving big-name businesses like JPMorgan Chase, Airbus and Ferrari and offering new software tools that businesses can use on their own. A little more than half of Palantir’s revenue comes from commercial businesses, according to the S.E.C. filing.

The 2,500-employee company holds about a 3 percent share of what has become a $25 billion “data analytics” market, according to PitchBook, a firm that tracks the performance of private companies. “That is a small but significant share,” said a PitchBook analyst, Brendan Burke.
Palantir has raised more than $3 billion in funding and is valued by private market investors at $20 billion, but it has not turned a profit since it was founded in 2003. In 2019, Palantir’s revenues topped $742.5 million, a nearly 25 percent increase over the previous year. But it lost more than $579 million, about the same as it lost in 2018, according to the financial documents made public on Tuesday.
Though the company has won an impressive array of federal contracts — in the last four years, it landed at least $741 million in guaranteed money and potentially as much as $2.9 billion, according to the documents — it has also stoked controversy among competitors and federal employees.
In 2016, the company sued the Army over the procurement process for a new version of an intelligence analysis system, claiming the process was unlawful and wasteful. Palantir ended up winning the contract, which accounts for $1.7 billion of the $2.9 billion in potential federal contract money it has won since 2016.
In April, an anonymous government official sent a lengthy memo to Joseph D. Kernan, the under secretary of defense for intelligence, describing the inner workings of a flagship Pentagon operation, Project Maven.

An effort to remake American military technology through artificial intelligence
, Project Maven has drawn on the expertise of more than 20 American companies, including Palantir.
The project points to how Palantir works with customers. It often deploys specialists, called “forward deployed engineers,” who spend weeks, months or years customizing and expanding its software for the task at hand. The company builds whatever data software that needs building — databases and software connections and on-screen visual displays that help people get their work done.

The details of Palantir projects can vary. It usually connects different sources of data and provides a way for everyday employees to search through it. But in Project Maven, it is offering tools that help seasoned, artificial intelligence specialists build complex mathematical systems, called deep neural networks
, that can recognize objects in images.
The memo, obtained by The New York Times, said that although Palantir had come late to Maven, the company had grown to “touch almost every aspect” of the project through contracts worth about $40 million a year. The document accused Maven leadership of skirting Pentagon rules and ethics in giving preferential treatment to the start-up, whose employees had developed unusually close relationships with their partners inside the military
The memo and related emails showed the company’s considerable influence inside the government.
Among other complaints, the memo to Mr. Kernan claimed that a Palantir employee had sat in on a meeting where government officials — some of whom did not know the Palantir employee was in the room — discussed future contracts and their dollar amounts, which could give the company an “astounding” advantage when bidding for new work.
After the memo, the Defense Department began a formal inquiry into Project Maven, according to two people familiar with the matter, who were not allowed to speak about it publicly. The outcome is not yet known. A Defense Department spokesman for Project Maven declined to comment.
Though the company is in ways building custom software, that software is still owned by Palantir because it is sold under a commercial software license. That means Palantir can sell that customized software to other clients.
 
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Coltraine

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Lots of good stuff in here. It will take me some time to be able to read it all and watch these videos at the deeper level that the subject matter itself demands. I'm glad Anglin started this thread though. This is going into areas of research and reality in which I for one am lacking any previous experience in dealing with. But luckily for me people like @CharlesWorthing and @RedPillStormer are bringing the fire in terms of their links and rabbit-holes. Good job guys.
 

CrackSmokeRepublican

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A crucial component to simulations is called "Social Network Analysis"



I actually know a bit of theory on this, but because I can't find an article, I'll use my own words. By looking at the above graph, computers calculate "node weight", for example Gavriel D. has no friends, his node weight is 0, while Jonathan W has 4 friends, his node weight is 4.

But this is not all, what you can also do is look into "generations", which is "friends of friends". For example, if you Rachel M, you only have 2 friends, but those two friends have 7 friends each. By looking 2 generations down, you get 2 x 7 = 14.

You also have clusters, on the picture above there is 3 of them. People like Rachel M. are called "bridge builders" or something, because they connect two clusters together. If Rachel M. was to be removed, the communication between clusters would be down.

The CIA learned after using this node weight calculations that oftentimes it's not the terrorist cell leader with 5 followers that is worth chasing, but rather the middleman who has only 2 contacts but acts as a bridge-maker and connects the leader with weapons supply and other things, thus combining 2 clusters.

This system finds out channels on Youtube which act in this way (they are a common point of intersection for various unrelated groups), which results in "cross-polination" (2 clusters coming together). By using node weight calculations, the system can find influential people and make sure that they are prevented from ever growing too big (see Youtube algorithm).

The FBI has a system called Palantir, which builds this social network graphs by using cell phone GPS data, public cameras, social media posts, store purchases etc which it can access all at once in real time. The system not only finds your contacts, but also the contacts of your contacts and builds this node graph in real time, like the picture above and does all these calculations.




Posted on TIU on Palantir back in 2013... they do multispectrum graph analysis across the web-forums... updated recently.

https://www.bloomberg. com/news/articles/2021-02-08/palantir-teams-up-with-ibm-opening-path-to-expanded-sales-staff
https://github .com/palantir
https://seekingalpha .com/article/4418881-chairman-thiel-hints-palantir-rein-in-bitcoin
https://www.msn .com/en-us/money/companies/soros-regrets-early-investment-in-peter-thiels-palantir/ar-BB1b6olH (2020)
----------------


silicon valley Sept. 28, 2020

Techie Software Soldier Spy
Palantir, Big Data’s scariest, most secretive unicorn, is going public. But is its crystal ball just smoke and mirrors?
By Sharon Weinberger

Photo: Busà Photography/Getty Images



Back in 2003, John Poindexter got a call from Richard Perle, an old friend from their days serving together in the Reagan administration. Perle, one of the architects of the Iraq War, which started that year, wanted to introduce Poindexter to a couple of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who were starting a software company. The firm, Palantir Technologies, was hoping to pull together data collected by a wide range of spy agencies — everything from human intelligence and cell-phone calls to travel records and financial transactions — to help identify and stop terrorists planning attacks on the United States.

Poindexter, a retired rear admiral who had been forced to resign as Reagan’s national-security adviser over his role in the Iran-Contra scandal, wasn’t exactly the kind of starry-eyed idealist who usually appeals to Silicon Valley visionaries. Returning to the Pentagon after the 9/11 attacks, he had begun researching ways to develop a data-mining program that was as spooky as its name: Total Information Awareness. His work — dubbed a “super-snoop’s dream” by conservative columnist William Safire — was a precursor to the National Security Agency’s sweeping surveillance programs that were exposed a decade later by Edward Snowden.

https://nymag .com/intelligencer/2020/09/inside-palantir-technologies-peter-thiel-alex-karp.html

Chairman Thiel Hints That Palantir Could Rein In Bitcoin
Apr. 13, 2021 1:34 PM ETBitcoin USD (BTC-USD)PLTR425 Comments133 Likes
Summary
  • Last week, Palantir Chairman Peter Thiel claimed that he is a bitcoin maximalist while simultaneously warning about the threat that bitcoin poses to the dollar's position as a reserve currency.
  • While there is no publicly disclosed link between the program and Palantir, the IRS is scanning bitcoin transactions under "Operation Hidden Treasure". The IRS uses Palantir to find tax evasion.
  • Palantir's data governance technology could provide a privacy-balanced compliance solution to bitcoin in a more stringent regulatory environment. This would cement bitcoin as an open-source alternative to the digital yuan.
 
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perception

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A topic that's tangential to this is the Dead Internet Theory which posits that massive bot armies are being used to mold public opinion.

https://forum.agoraroad.com/index.p...net-theory-most-of-the-internet-is-fake.3011/

TLDR: Large proportions of the supposedly human-produced content on the internet are actually generated by artificial intelligence networks in conjunction with paid secret media influencers in order to manufacture consumers for an increasing range of newly-normalised cultural products.
Discussion of this theory pops up in /g/ and /x/ from time to time. Also, anyone who's been "in the trenches" of this infowar can intuitively feel some truth to this. You can notice the bots in action around you. Our side is pretty outgunned on this front tbh.
 
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Italo-Canadian

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There's a video below the article that you might want to check out.

@Andrew Anglin

P.S. The video mentions Jacques Attali - a super Jew. See early life:
 
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Italo-Canadian

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In February 2016, a few months after Carnegie began its work on this project, a cyber attack shook the finance world.1 Hackers had targeted SWIFT, the global financial system’s main information network, trying to steal 1 billion U.S. dollars, nearly 0.50 percent of Bangladesh’s GDP,2 from the Bangladeshi central bank over the course of a weekend.3 It was a wake-up call revealing that cyber threats targeting the financial sector were no longer limited to low-level theft but could now pose systemic risk.

Only a few months earlier, in 2015, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace had launched an initiative to better protect the global financial system against cyber threats.4 Our first step was to develop a proposal for the G20 to launch a work stream dedicated to cybersecurity in the financial sector.5 In March 2017, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors outlined an initial road map to increase the cyber resilience of the international financial system. In the wake of the Bangladesh incident, Carnegie expanded its work, complementing the G20 project with the development of an action-oriented, technically detailed cyber resilience capacity-building tool box for financial institutions. Launched in 2019 in partnership with the IMF, SWIFT, FS-ISAC, Standard Chartered, the Global Cyber Alliance, and the Cyber Readiness Institute, this tool box is now available in seven languages.6 And we are continuing to track the evolution of the cyber threat landscape and incidents involving financial institutions through a collaboration with BAE Systems.7

To raise more awareness among senior officials of the growing threat, Carnegie also hosted a series of roundtables at the Munich Security Conference, including a cyber war game, dedicated to cybersecurity and the financial system. We co-hosted a high-level roundtable with the IMF for central bank governors and launched a workshop series at Wilton Park to strengthen the relationships among financial authorities, industry, and law enforcement as well as national security agencies.

In July 2019, an international group—convened by Carnegie—of leading experts in governments, central banks, industry, and the technical community decided that there would be value in developing a longer-term international cybersecurity strategy for the financial system.

This report is the result of that project and offers a vision for how the international community could better protect the financial system against cyber threats. The recommendations are designed to inform the deliberations among the G20, the G7, relevant standard-setting bodies as well as the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum and the Munich Security Conference.

Written by Carnegie experts, this document includes feedback obtained through consultations with more than 200 stakeholders in government, the financial regulatory community, industry, and academia. An international advisory group, formed in fall 2019, provided strategic advice throughout the project. In February 2020, following Carnegie’s presentation of this project at the Forum’s annual meeting in Davos the previous month, the World Economic Forum became an official partner.
 

MoonmanJones

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sir_andy_of_bad

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Basically Uncle Ted was right all along.
He truly was; once a civilization reaches a point of technological progress, it's already doomed. This fate can be overcome but only through extreme discipline; look at places such as China, which are technically authoritarian but it meshes within the traditional Chinese mental framework regardless, so to them it's not really a thing at all. They possess extreme ethnic homogeneity so there's no racial strife, very little class struggle as people mostly accept their place... basically all the qualities that Europeans used to possess before the Jews pretended to be Europeans too.
 

drallod

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This seems to be a forum these people use. It's weird because no one is responding to any threads.


I suspect this organizational structure is CERN-like but with less transparency. These scientists create micro-simulations based on personal work from their academic careers. These micro-simulations are then feedstock for the macro-simulations which are managed by governments and classified.
 
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saiga12boy

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I came across a white paper from the National Intelligence Council (published March 2021) through the Corbett Report: Global Trends 2040. The next two decades should be a good time for all... The document is passive-aggressive and paints a picture of most people being left behind, unless they can "adapt" and are "resilient." It also in so many words calls the blacks hopeless retards.
I think black people are more simple in the way they interact with others and are more likely to be brutally honest (not to imply they won't lie to benefit themselves, as is typical human behavior) I appreciate this about blacks and this direct honesty is hard to apply in a society based on white people biting their tongue to stop from sharing what they really think about the people around them (as feminism and the lgbtq movement couldn't exist if whites were more brutally honest with everyone). I think this will complicate social simulations as different races behave differentlu and affect culture in many ways than can be mathematically added like assuming a black area will have a higher crime rate based on crime statistics.
 

sir_andy_of_bad

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I think black people are more simple in the way they interact with others and are more likely to be brutally honest (not to imply they won't lie to benefit themselves, as is typical human behavior) I appreciate this about blacks and this direct honesty is hard to apply in a society based on white people biting their tongue to stop from sharing what they really think about the people around them (as feminism and the lgbtq movement couldn't exist if whites were more brutally honest with everyone). I think this will complicate social simulations as different races behave differentlu and affect culture in many ways than can be mathematically added like assuming a black area will have a higher crime rate based on crime statistics.
Black people are "brutally honest" because they don't give a shit about anything more than tangential impressions. The most they care about their self-image is how fly their airforce ones look with their new grill.
 

saiga12boy

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Black people are "brutally honest" because they don't give a shit about anything more than tangential impressions. The most they care about their self-image is how fly their airforce ones look with their new grill.
That is a big part of it, it seems to flow from an animalism right beneath the surface, They are good agents of chaos, ai appreciate that, we need more genuine chaos in this system so it can be brought down, though of course the elites manipupate their chaos for their purposes.
 

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This method of social engineering "conformity" has been used in America's public schools to pressure white kids into "accepting" niggers:

  • 1 - As being as smart as they are
  • 2 - As being as morally good as they are
  • 3 - As being as socially and intellectually "equal" to them in every single way
  • 4 - As being as sexually attractive as they are when compared to whites


And how did most white kids react to decades of government-sanctioned brainwashing?

 
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cxlemq

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Agent-based Social Simulation of the Coronavirus Crisis (ASSOCC) is an interesting social simulation tool that I came across while reading this article that is more like a whitepaper for ASSOCC


From the article:

We have developed a NetLogo simulation consisting of a number (between 300 and 2500) of agents that exist in a grid. Agents can move, perceive other agents, and decide on their actions based on their individual characteristics and their perception of the environment. The environment constrains the physical actions of the agents but can also impose norms and regulations on their behavior. E.g. the agents must follow roads when moving between two places, but the environment can also describe rules of engagement such how many agents can occupy a certain location. Through interaction, agents can take over characteristics from the other agents, such as becoming infected with the coronavirus, or receive information. The main components of the simulation are:

Agents: representing individuals. Agents have needs and capabilities, but also personal characteristics such as risk aversion or the propensity to follow the law and recommendations from authorities. Needs include health, wealth and belonging. Capabilities indicate for instance their jobs or family situations. Agents need a minimum wealth value to survive which they receive by working or subsidies (or by living together with a working agent). In shops and workplaces, agents trade wealth for products and services. Agents pay tax to a central government that then uses this money for subsidies, and the maintenance of public services such as hospitals and schools.

Places: representing homes, shops, hospitals, workplaces, schools, airports and stations. By assigning agents to homes, different households can be represented: families, students rooming together, retirement homes, three generation households and co-parenting divorced agents. The distribution of these households can be set in different combinations to analyse the situation in different cities or countries.

Global functions: under this heading we capture the general SEIR model of the corona virus which is used to give agents the status of infected, contagious, etc. This model also determines the contageousness of places like home, transport, shops, etc. based on a factor that represents fixed properties of a place (like size, time people spend there on average, whether it is indoor or outdoor) and density (how many people are there at the same time). Under this global functions we also capture economic rules that indicate tax and subsidies from government. Finally we also include the social networks and groups that exist under this heading. The social networks give information about normal behavior and also provide clusters of agents performing activities together.

Policies: describing interventions that can be taken by decision makers. For instance social distancing, testing or closing of schools and workplaces. Policies have complex effects for the health, wealth and well-being of all agents. Policies can be extended in many different ways to provide an experimentation environment for decision makers.
 

Italo-Canadian

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May 7, 2021 (LifeSiteNews) – The U.S. is awash in a surplus of coronavirus vaccines as there has been a sudden in drop in demand for them; most Americans who want the shots have had them. Now an army of Big Biotech’s agencies set up to address “vaccine hesitancy” are turning up their mass marketing to “create demand” using surveillance, rapid data analysis, media control, and host of behavior control strategies they’ve outlined in their playbooks.

Demand plummets
About 40% of the total adult population has been fully vaccinated, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Uptake plummeted 25% after a peak in mid-April, and 56.4% of adults have had at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine.

But five million people – about eight per cent of those who took a first dose of the shot – failed to show up for their second dose appointments, according to the CDC.

As a result, excess vaccine stock has been piling up across the country. Chairs sat empty at a Philadelphia mass vaccination site where 4,000 unused doses of vaccines were due to expire. A million doses, representing one out of every four sent to Louisiana by the federal government, were sitting on shelves. One Wyoming county asked the state to stop shipping vaccines because it had a surplus of 20,000 shots; North Carolina closed its vaccination clinics for lack of demand.

“For the first time ever, we’ve had appointments at many vaccination sites that have not been filled,” said Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer during a news briefing last Thursday.

“There [are] a lot of people around here who … I don't think they want to take the vaccine,” chuckled Ralph Merrill, an engineer who sits on an Alabama county board.

Vaccine vs. virus fear
Numerous mainstream media fretted about “vaccine hesitancy,” blaming it on COVID-19 denialism, “conspiracy theories,” and QAnon followers, Trump supporters, and minority mistrust of the government with its brutal history of racist eugenics. No one mentioned that some people just don’t think the vaccine works. The mainstream media simply ignored Yale Professor of Epidemiology Harvey Risch, for example, who revealed that the majority of people now coming down with COVID-19 have been vaccinated against the virus.

Nor did they mention the leading reason for vaccine refusal cited by 45% of those in a March poll conducted by the Delphi Group for Facebook researchers, which is fear of side-effects, however. With reported adverse events at 118,746 total in the U.S. alone, including 3,410 deaths and 1,595 permanent disabilities, it is a legitimate deterrent. So is the abrupt halt of AstraZeneca’s vaccine for its high rate of blood clots, and the pause of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine.

The leading reason for vaccine refusal cited by 45% of those in a March poll conducted by the Delphi Group for Facebook researchers is fear of side-effects. With reported adverse events at 118,746 total in the U.S. alone, including 3,410 deaths and 1,595 permanent disabilities, it is a legitimate deterrent.

Many people simply fear the novel vaccine more than the novel virus which, according to the CDC, has an overall 99.4% survival rate for those aged 50-65 who get the infection. The odds go up as people get older but decrease if people are younger. For those under 18, the coronavirus fatality rate estimated by the CDC is 0.00002, which translates into a 99.98% COVID survival rate. In fact, for those under 18, the lifetime odds of being struck by lightning are higher than the odds of dying of the virus.

Image

Nevertheless, President Joe Biden said Tuesday that now that the bulk of the vaccinated are seniors – 85% of whom have gotten at least their first vaccine dose – he wants 70% of all Americans to get their first dose by July 4. He specifically pitched the jab to youths and announced his administration would be sending the vaccines to pediatricians to dole out over the coming weeks.

“Getting vaccinated not only protects you but reduces risk of giving the virus to somebody else,” Biden said, employing a classic line of “social marketing” script from a global industry of behavior change experts compelling people to take the shot.

Vaccination Demand Observatory
“[P]ublic health experts know that the last inch – getting the vaccine from vial to arm – can be the hardest,” according to the Vaccination Demand Observatory

Launched last week, the Observatory runs a “beta dashboard” of data and resources “intended for select global public health professionals.”

The Observatory was established by a group called the Public Good Projects (PGP) which “designs and implements large-scale behavior change programs for the public good,” UNICEF – which has received $86.6 million from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation since 2020 – and the Gates-subsidized Yale Institute for Global Health. .

PGP was founded by Joe Smyser, a public health academic who trained at the CDC and has partnered with Google and Facebook. Its board members include executives from Merck pharmaceuticals, Pepsi, Levi-Strauss, the Advertising Council, Sesame Street, Campbell’s, and TikTok.

PGP’s website says that through “media monitoring and bots, grassroots social media organizing, or thought leadership, we deploy our considerable resources and connections to communication for change.”

Bots – or internet robots, also known as crawlers – can scan content on webpages all over the internet and create automated conversations and comments.

“PGP is monitoring coronavirus-related media conversations 24/7 to provide organizations with real-time public health expertise and messaging guidance.”

The supposed danger of the disease needs to be emphasized, because ‘If people perceive that they are at low risk of contracting COVID-19, or that the consequences of becoming infected will not be severe, they will be less willing to get vaccinated.’

The group has promoted vaccines before. It developed the #StopFlu campaign, recruiting 120 “‘micro’ social media influencers” in the “African American and Latinx communities across eight states” and giving them prompts to sell their audiences the ideas that flu is a serious problem and that healthy people need flu shots.

PGP’s Observatory says it aims to “mitigate…mistrust on all vaccines.” Awash in Brave New World speak, the program’s “three pillars” are “social listening analytics,” a training program, and a “Vaccine Acceptance Interventions Lab” (VAIL) to “draw upon behavioral and social research and insights from social listening” and to develop "inoculation messages to vaccinate people against vaccine misinformation.” These would be “rapid field tested for tone, format and behavior change impact before being implemented.”

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) created a new public health field called “infodemiology” – the “science of managing infodemics.” PGP and UNICEF are leading the “Field Infodemiologist Training Program (FITP)” based in UNICEF country offices, government offices, and offices of other “multilateral partners” to train “field infodemic managers” to conduct “public health surveillance for misinformation” and provide “community support in “misinformation outbreaks.

Big Biotech’s global network
Among the huge network of organizations and programs involved in the vast mass marketing of vaccine demand – besides the WHO, CDC, UNICEF, PGP, and Yale – key orchestrators include:

  • Stronger – a new national campaign formed by an “ever-growing number of public and private sector partners” including PGP, Google and BIO. “Whether it’s vaccine misinformation or climate change denial, we’re seeing a dangerous strain of anti-science rhetoric growing online,” its website says. “Our aim is to cut through the noise and normalize the truth.”
  • BIO – Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO), the world’s largest biotech advocacy association representing member companies including vaccine manufacturers Pfizer Inc., Moderna Therapeutics Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Janssen Biotech, and GlaxoSmithKline as well as big agriculture companies like Monsanto along with academic institutions and “related organizations.”
  • Project RCAID – created by PGP for “Rapid Collection Analysis Interpretation and Dissemination” – provides “real-time media monitoring with daily analyses from public health experts.”
  • Zignal Labs – a “media intelligence platform” to “craft messages” and “take control of threatening narratives before they emerge.”
  • Family Health International or FHI 360 – an organization that uses “social psychology, anthropology, behavioral economics, social marketing, and other behavioral sciences” to effect behavior change. It has received tens of millions from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to “create demand for long-acting contraceptives” in poor countries. Its donors also include the CDC, the World Bank, and vaccine-maker Johnson & Johnson. It’s now in the business of creating COVID-19 vaccine demand, too.
Playbook rules
In the world of “infodemic management,” one will inevitably come across the name of Jeff French, Professor at Brighton University and author of Strategic Social Marketing: For Behaviour and Social Change, whose text is referenced in most of the guides to mass marketing vaccines. French published a paper in July 2020 with the pandemic just a few months underway and a vaccine reportedly still unavailable for years to come about “Pre-Emptive COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake Promotion Strategy.” His tips have evidently inspired much of the standard pandemic vaccine sell:

  • “Effective campaigning against vaccine misinformation should focus on the dangers of the disease” and “draw on the powerful motivator of fear of loss along with the possibility of gain of positive health”
  • “Appeal to emotions since data alone will not be enough.”
  • Do not put adverse events at the center of “demand creation efforts” but “be sure to contextualize them” and help audiences understand that “most will be rare and of limited duration.”
  • “Any media management and engagement strategy that is developed will need to include proactive, rolling media briefings, story generation, editorial feeds…and will also need to include 24/7 media monitoring and rebuttal/correction systems.”
  • Authorities should have “agreements in place” about “how and when misleading information and advocates of such information should be removed and flagged as being problematic on social media.”
  • Repeat “positive messaging that emphasizes the protective (individual, family, and community) benefits of the vaccine and the loss associated with not being vaccinated (death, poor health, loss of freedom and social solidarity, inability to travel” etc.)
  • “Partner” with the pharmaceutical industry, other for-profits, and NGOs to promote vaccines.
  • “Seek interventions” with key leaders in the anti-vaccination community and “seek to turn such informants into advocates for vaccination.”
  • “Continue to promote other protective behaviors such as handwashing and physical distancing.”
  • “Integrate financial and non-financial incentives… along with penalties for non-compliance by imposing restrictions on travel, education, or employment.”
  • “Governments will need to deliver and communicate what mix of incentives and penalty interventions will be used to promote demand.”
Behavior modification and operant conditioning techniques are a frequent theme of French’s writings; a 2014 paper he wrote for the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on vaccine uptake said “behavioural interventions should seek to reward desired behaviours and when appropriate penalise inappropriate behaviour.”

A range of playbooks for public health agencies and “stakeholders” on strategies to make people take the shot follow on French’s instructions. The World Health Organization issued a “technical advisory” on the heels of French’s guidelines called Behavioral Considerations for Acceptance and Uptake of COVID-19 Vaccines in October, still two months before a shot was even available. Some of its advice is sounding very familiar now:

  • Leverage anticipated regret in communications.” For example, by “asking people how they would feel if they do not get vaccinated and end up contracting COVID-19 or transmitting it to loved ones.”
  • Emphasize the social benefits.” Tell people that “vaccination not only benefits the individual” but builds “herd” or “population immunity”
  • Putting emphasis on the economic benefits, such as being able to stay in the workforce and provide for one’s family, might also encourage vaccination”
  • “Manage expectations.” Since vaccine uptake may be “undermined by COVID-19 vaccines being not fully effective, meaning that people will have to continue to engage in preventive behaviour (e.g. maskwearing and physical distancing) even if and after they have been vaccinated.”
  • Emphasize danger of disease. “If people perceive that they are at low risk of contracting COVID-19, or that the consequences of becoming infected will not be severe, they will be less willing to get vaccinated.”
  • Downplay dangers of vaccination and adverse events. “Some people may try to compare the risk of getting infected with that of taking a new vaccine, and determine that between the two, the risk of COVID-19 is lower.” Adverse events are “often inevitable when large numbers of people get vaccinated in a short period of time.” Neutralize the blow by “communicating proactively about uncertainty” and risk of vaccine-associated disability and death.
‘Field Guide’
UNICEF and PGP’s Vaccine Misinformation Management Field Guide advises vaccine promoters to “consider putting vaccination in a ‘gain frame’. Show happy, healthy, productive people in graphics, and if you must show the act of vaccination try to avoid needles and tears.”

It’s easy to find examples of French’s operant psychology marketing methods being played out in the real world pandemic theatre.

One of its tactics is to badger people to accept vaccination as a “social norm.” Explain that “the majority of people adopt certain behavior and that is what others expect you to do to achieve a common good.”

FHI360 published its own “quickstart guide” on “Demand Creation and Advocacy for COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Uptake” advises governments to “establish a demand creation and advocacy task force” – something Biden did in March, setting aside $1.5 for a media vaccine advertising blitz.

FHI 360 also advises breaking people into “audience segments” of “easy sells” who have “high trust in healthcare providers and do not question vaccines” to “vaccine hesitant” who have “high concerns about safety and “low trust in institutions promoting vaccine.” Then, create “targeted messages,” making “talking point reference sheets for cultural and religious leaders.”

‘Carrot and stick’
It’s easy to find examples of French’s operant psychology marketing methods being played out in the real world pandemic theatre.

The mainstream media have evidently taken the point about “incentives and penalty interventions” on board and “herd immunity” is the new Holy Grail which all who are not reckless criminals should seek. “We’re struggling to get to herd immunity,” CNN’s Michael Smerconish said with the precise tone of fear and alarm that would elicit behavior modification. A full 26% of Americans said they would not take the vaccine, he said, but 44% of Republicans were resisting.

“Those folks jeopardize our ability to get to herd immunity faster,” Smerconish claimed in disgust. “If we don’t get vaccinated and periodically boosted we could prolong the pandemic and find ourselves continuing to fight this battle for years.” He quoted law professor Shanin Specter, who said, “Without a bigger carrot or a bigger stick many Americans will not get vaccinated and we will suffer more death and dislocation.”

The concept of “herd immunity” and how to get there is not settled science. The Great Barrington Declaration, signed by more than 43,000 medical practitioners and 14,000 public health scientists and doctors, proposes that allowing natural immunity to spread while shielding those most vulnerable to COVID infection would be less harmful than blanket lockdowns.

“As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all—including the vulnerable—falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity—i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable—and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity,” the declaration says.

Following infodemic guidelines, YouTube’s medical misinformation policy expressly forbids any discussion of natural immunity in herd immunity on its platform.

Real world exercise
Emphasizing fear is a strategy employed frequently by experienced public health personnel, too. “In those communities where the uptake is less it will take a lot longer for the epidemic to end,” Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Politico in an article about falling vaccine demand, for example. “There will be more sickness and more death in those communities.”

Former CDC director Tom Frieden employed an offshoot of the “social norm” tactic along with “emphasizing disease danger” in a recent tweet which painted unvaccinated people as “infected” spreaders of supposedly deadly variants.

Image

Research like a recent study from the Cleveland Clinic and Case Western Reserve University which found that new coronavirus variants are actually weaker than the original viral strain from Wuhan are to be ignored or treated as “misinformation.”

Marketing schemes to recruit faith leaders have had success too, as vaccination drives have even moved inside mosques to convince skeptical Muslims to roll up their sleeves. And Pope Francis has enthusiastically embraced the infodemic behavior change mission and is hosting a global public health vaccine promotion conference this week.
 

CharlesWorthing

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UK Column article mentions a 2017 UK Pandemic exercise which included a Social Simulation. The results were classified.


Back to Exercise Cygnus. This was supposed to be merely a computer simulation. So why would it be an issue of “national security”? Why would it “frighten the public”? Perhaps because it was intended to change the real world into its simulated image?

Exclusive: Exercise Cygnus warned the NHS could not cope with pandemic three years ago but 'terrifying' results were kept secret

The NHS failed a major cross-government test of its ability to handle a severe pandemic but the “terrifying” results were kept secret from the public, the Sunday Telegraph can reveal.

Ministers were informed three years ago that Britain would be quickly overwhelmed by a severe outbreak amid a shortage of critical care beds, morgue capacity and personal protective equipment (PPE), an investigation has discovered.

Codenamed Exercise Cygnus, the three-day dry run for a pandemic carried out in October 2016 tested how NHS hospitals and other services would cope in the event of a major flu outbreak with a similar mortality rate to Covid-19.

The report on Cygnus’s findings were deemed too sensitive by Whitehall officials to be made public but the Sunday Telegraph has established that it found:


  • The NHS lacked adequate “surge capacity” and would require thousands more critical care beds to cope with a severe pandemic
  • Health bosses would need to “switch off” large parts of the NHS to cope with demand
  • Medics would need to adopt a “battlefield” mentality, with frail patients denied critical care
  • Mortuaries would be quickly overwhelmed
  • Potential failings in the supply of PPE to doctors and nurses
  • Officials even discussed preventing midwives from delivering newborn babies so they could be sent to care for the critically ill

Despite the failings exposed by Cygnus, the government never changed its strategic roadmap for a future pandemic, with the last update carried out in 2014.

Last night ministers were facing questions over why the NHS was struggling to overcome a shortage of ventilators and hospital beds amid suggestions that warnings from Cygnus appeared to have been largely ignored.

Officials involved in drawing up the exercise, however, insisted “serious lessons were learned” and said Britain was now one of the best prepared countries in the world to deal with coronavirus and its consequences.

“It’s right to say that the NHS was stretched beyond breaking point by Cygnus,” said one senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“People might say we have blood on our hands but the fact is that it’s always easier to manage the last outbreak than the one coming down the track. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.”

The findings of Exercise Cygnus remain classified with officials citing “biosecurity concerns” and a desire not to frighten the public as a reason for keeping the documents secret.

“There has been a reluctance to put Cygnus out in the public domain because frankly it would terrify people,” one senior official added.
More than a thousand separate organisations took part in the cross-government exercise in October 2016 including NHS trusts, the military and the British Medical Association.

Each was asked to demonstrate how they would cope with a major influenza outbreak with a maximum national death toll of 500,000.
The modelling for the fictional pandemic was supplied by Imperial College London, the same group of academics now tracking Covid-19.

The verdict was clear - a pandemic of that scale would quickly overwhelm the NHS due to major shortages of intensive care beds equipped with lifesaving ventilators. Morgues would swiftly run out of space with a dearth of doctors to certify causes of death. Problems were also identified in delivering protective masks and gowns to medical workers on the frontline, senior sources said.

At a high-level meeting it was decided the NHS would be forced to adopt a “battlefield” mentality in the event of a pandemic, with patients prioritised for lifesaving care according to their survival chances.

Documents seen by the Sunday Telegraph show that guidelines were “cascaded” down to individual NHS trusts with instructions on how to better prepare themselves for an outbreak. Despite the warnings some trusts took little action, according to one senior source.

The failings exposed by Cygnus also prompted ministers to draw up a draft emergency legislation, which formed the bulk of the government’s Coronavirus Bill passed in the Commons last week.

Despite the damning verdict, Cygnus was largely kept quiet with only a passing reference made during the NHS England board meeting in March 2017 (at 7 minutes 14 seconds in the video).

However Dame Sally Davies, then the country’s chief medical officer, briefly mentioned Cygnus during a speech at the World Innovation Summit for Health in December 2016.

“We’ve just had in the UK a three-day exercise on flu on a pandemic that killed a lot of people,” she said.

“It became clear that we could not cope with the excess bodies, for instance. It becomes very worrying about the deaths, and what that will do to society as you start to get all those deaths, [including] the economic impact.

“If we, as one of the most prepared countries, are going through an exercise and find a lot of things that need improving just on the internal bit, add to it the [lack of] vaccines and then the global traffic and the lack of solidarity . . . a severe one will stretch everyone.”

Last night sources close to the team at Imperial College said they had been “unpleasantly surprised” by the apparent lack of preparation for an outbreak revealed by Cygnus.

“We’ve been quite surprised at the lack of coherent planning for a pandemic on this scale,” the source said.

“It’s basically a lack of attention to what would be needed to prevent a disease like this from overwhelming the system. All the flexibility has been pared away so it’s difficult to react quickly. Nothing is ready to go.

“These exercises are supposed to prepare government for something like this - but it appears they were aware of the problem but didn’t do much about it.”

Documents also show that Exercise Cygnus identified potential shortages of personal protective equipment, currently in short supply at hospitals across the country with medics complaining they are being put at risk by a lack of proper protection.

In March last year the Northamptonshire Health and Wellbeing Board noted: “A recent national exercise (Exercise Cygnus) highlighted in particular the need for further work to be done to improve local arrangements around anti-viral distribution, community level protection measures, personal protective equipment [PPE] and mass vaccination programmes.”



A spokeswoman for Jeremy Hunt, the then health secretary, insisted he had been well aware of the need for more intensive care beds and had successfully lobbied for an increase in the NHS budget.

“Jeremy was acutely aware the NHS needed more capacity which is why he fought for and secured an £8 bn and then a £20bn increase in the NHS annual budget during that period,” the spokeswoman said.

“And although there will be many lessons to learn after Coronavirus, the fact that we do such exercises is why the NHS was rated as the second best prepared system for pandemic preparedness across major countries.”

A Department of Health spokesperson said: “The coronavirus outbreak calls for decisive action, at home and abroad, and the World Health Organisation recognises that the UK is one of the most prepared countries in the world for pandemic flu.

“As the public would expect, we regularly test our pandemic plans and the learnings from previous exercises have helped allow us to rapidly respond to COVID-19. We are committed to be as transparent as possible, and in publishing the SAGE evidence the public are aware of the science behind the government’s response.”
 

Crimes Man

Active member
Cave Beast
A topic that's tangential to this is the Dead Internet Theory which posits that massive bot armies are being used to mold public opinion.

https://forum.agoraroad.com/index.p...net-theory-most-of-the-internet-is-fake.3011/



Discussion of this theory pops up in /g/ and /x/ from time to time. Also, anyone who's been "in the trenches" of this infowar can intuitively feel some truth to this. You can notice the bots in action around you. Our side is pretty outgunned on this front tbh.
Most of the sincere proponents of this are borderline schizoposters who believe that anyone who disagrees with them on an anonymous pottery forum is a disinformation divide & conquer paid shill bot. It's like they've managed to completely forget the entire concept of trolling. I also believe most of the proponents, total, aren't sincere and are just trolling. Bot content probably does exist and it's weird youtube shit and ads for chinese mobile games.
 
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