Price of gold and silver flying, cryptos too

V.I

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There's a lot of financial jargon in that. We're not all Wall St criminals. Are you saying that precious metals & crypto are about to shoot up?
It sucks to be the bearer of bad news, but it means the dollar is likely to shoot up and cryptos/precious metals will go down as a result. It’s retarded that the dollar and interest rates determine the price of every other asset class, including cryptos, but that’s how it works.

Now, the pattern could be invalidated and dollar bulls could get shaken out, but we’re talking about probabilities here and dollar bulls (betting on dollar up, cryptos/metals down) have the odds in their favor.
 

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There's a lot of financial jargon in that. We're not all Wall St criminals. Are you saying that precious metals & crypto are about to shoot up?
He’s talking technical analysis. I hear ya though. Right now the fed needs to print more money & the govt needs to spend it. The majority of the programs that are artificially propping the market up are starting to run out. The m
Right now the DXY is trading at its neckline ~92.9 in a large inverse head and shoulders pattern. A sustained break above this neckline indicates a trend reversal with a big upside risk to USD.

However, global firms have significant dollar-denominated debt liabilities so any large move upwards will reflexively snowball, since they would have to sell increasingly larger quantities of their domestic currencies to obtain dollars to meet obligations. This means the dollar will have higher demand as the price goes up, unlike most assets. The fed understands this and will jawbone or intervene before a runaway reaction and system meltdown occurs. Place your bets, but the saying β€œdon’t fight the fed” will be a profitable axiom until one day it isn’t and everything goes to heck.
i agree, ultimately I think the dollar is going lower In the long run, however, I think it’s going higher before it goes lower. Central banks are buying a lot of gold right now. So I think that gold could go up with the dollar as a fear trade, which is rare but it happens. But right now I wouldn’t be buying much of anything. Just sit in cash & wait. I have core positions that I’ll never sell & I always maintain diversification with stocks, real estate, precious metals & bonds/cash
 

V.I

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Asians are doing a decent BTC pump above $38k on low volume. Sometimes you gotta wonder if whales and algos were intentionally creating those bearish chart patterns to scare traders into giving up their coins on the cheap. It’s still too early to draw any conclusions from US time zone Sunday evening Asian trading: this coming week should clarify direction.
 

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So I think that gold could go up with the dollar as a fear trade, which is rare but it happens.
The last time gold and the dollar moved up together was 2016. The correlation between gold and the dollar is something like -0.6 so it isn't a perfect inverse correlation.
 

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It looks like 38k was the peak in Bitcoin. we didn’t get a further rebound to 45-50. Bitcoin has a huge bear flag on the weekly & monthly time frames. It’s getting ready to break down. Next level coming up is the scene of the crime around 17-20k which is where the breakout took place.
The dollar looks like it’s getting ready to surge on the other hand which is a sign that global liquidity is tightening. after the dollar rallies & markets pull back, you can bet on the plunge protection team & fed to start printing again.
The fact that the 10 year treasury went from 1.7% & is now around 1.3% shows that inflation is cooling off & deflation is going to be the theme temporarily. I expect the 10 year to drop to about 1%. Long term I think inflation will be huge, these are shorter term moves im expecting that may last anywhere from 2-9 months
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Just stop posting about Bitcoin.
 

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Sometimes you gotta wonder if whales and algos were intentionally creating those bearish chart patterns to scare traders into giving up their coins on the cheap.
Over the last three or four months a huge amount of fear porn has been pumped out about Tether. It's been a massive push and probably contributed to Bitcoin finally rolling over. Yet somehow, the Tether "scam" hasn't blown up like so many have been predicting off and on since 2017. If Tether is a scam, it's the most robust scam ever perpetrated since the founding of the Federal Reserve Bank.

Anyway the point I'm driving at is, the effect of the fear porn might finally be wearing off.
 
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Right now the DXY is trading at its neckline ~92.9 in a large inverse head and shoulders pattern. A sustained break above this neckline indicates a trend reversal with a big upside risk to USD.
The gold and silver charts are at major decision points also. These patterns are going to resolve one way or the other within the next week.
 
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glaucon

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Asians are doing a decent BTC pump above $38k on low volume. Sometimes you gotta wonder if whales and algos were intentionally creating those bearish chart patterns to scare traders into giving up their coins on the cheap. It’s still too early to draw any conclusions from US time zone Sunday evening Asian trading: this coming week should clarify direction.
Is it the asians or the fact that it is being reported Amazon is going to start accepting bitcoin payment by the end of the year?
 

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Just stop posting about Bitcoin.
It’s only at 38k. It could still rally to 45-50 & have a bearish pattern still. Bitcoin is downtrending on all time frames. I’ve got a pretty good record when it comes to Bitcoin. I was saying buy it at 5-10k & sell it at 65k. No one can predict the market exactly but I’ve been pretty good & have actually made substantial amounts $ trading.
 

V.I

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Is it the asians or the fact that it is being reported Amazon is going to start accepting bitcoin payment by the end of the year?
During low volume is perfect time for a short squeeze. 252 BTC got liquidated yesterday on Bitfinex. Everyone saw those patterns and got greedy on margin. Why ppl trade on margin in something as volatile and manipulated as crypto is beyond me. How do you know if some exchange employee isn’t feeding your and everyone else’s stops to his whale chat group?



 
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V.I

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The gold and silver charts are at major decision points also. These patterns are going to resolve one way or the other within the next week.
Yeah. Gold and silver are still the best investment if you want to protect your wealth and not worry about volatility. Bitcoiners point to the modest returns of precious metals (often on cherry picked time frames), but going all-in on with your life savings on crypto is not realistic. I went heavily exposed into this crypto bull at the beginning of the year and I was insomniac from constantly checking the charts, trying to resist the temptation to day trade, and fretting about the massive tax liability from last year that was about to come due when the money to pay it was all YOLO’ed on crypto. I have hardened risk tolerance, but winning a ten bagger was making me a sleep deprived zombie. Imagine getting caught in a crushing drawdown and how that would effect your daily functioning. Then compare that to putting gold and silver in a safe and forgetting about it. Yeah, feels good, man.
 
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glaucon

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Yeah. Gold and silver are still the best investment if you want to protect your wealth and not worry about volatility. Bitcoiners point to the modest returns of precious metals (often on cherry picked time frames), but going all-in on with your life savings on crypto is not realistic. I went heavily exposed into this crypto bull at the beginning of the year and I was insomniac from constantly checking the charts, trying to resist the temptation to day trade, and fretting about the massive tax liability from last year that was about to come due when the money to pay it was all YOLO’ed on crypto. I have hardened risk tolerance, but winning a ten bagger was making me a sleep deprived zombie. Imagine getting caught in a crushing drawdown and how that would effect your daily functioning. Then compare that to putting gold and silver in a safe and forgetting about it. Yeah, feels good, man.
Gold and silver doesn't do anything though. Literally every single commodity is performing better.
 

glaucon

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During low volume is perfect time for a short squeeze. 252 BTC got liquidated yesterday on Bitfinex. Everyone saw those patterns and got greedy on margin. Why ppl trade on margin in something as volatile and manipulated as crypto is beyond me. How do you know if some exchange employee isn’t feeding your and everyone else’s stops to his whale chat group?



Yea it was the Amazon announcement
 

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JR_Rustler_III

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I have hardened risk tolerance, but winning a ten bagger was making me a sleep deprived zombie. Imagine getting caught in a crushing drawdown and how that would effect your daily functioning. Then compare that to putting gold and silver in a safe and forgetting about it. Yeah, feels good, man.
The secret to investing in cryptos is to pick a few leading coins, buy them when there's "blood in the streets" (i.e., last week was a perfect example), and then forget about them. They are a long-term bet against the Global Dollar Financial System. Just don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

You can certainly trade them but you better know what you are doing. Volatility is a trader's friend after all, and Bitcoin offers volatility in spades.
 

V.I

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Gold and silver doesn't do anything though. Literally every single commodity is performing better.
This is that cherry-picked time frame tho. Last year July β€˜20 - July β€˜21, gold/silver have traded sideways or slightly down. However, July β€˜20 - July β€˜19 they were the top performing assets. JR_Rustler mentioned the weak correlation to the dollar, but if you compare precious metals charts to the 10 year yield, you’ll see a near perfect correlation. When was was the lowest coupon on the 10 year? August 2020. Peak in precious metals? August 2020.

Look at the exponentially increasing debt and need for low interest rates, and I see a bright future for precious metals.
 

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JR_Rustler mentioned the weak correlation to the dollar
-0.6 is actually a pretty strong negative correlation. My point was, it's not a perfect negative correlation (which would be -1.0) which is why gold and the dollar move in the same direction from time to time.

but if you compare precious metals charts to the 10 year yield, you’ll see a near perfect correlation. When was was the lowest coupon on the 10 year? August 2020. Peak in precious metals? August 2020.
Be careful there. You need to distinguish between real interest rates and nominal interest rates. This is because there is a very negative correlation between real interest rates (that is to say, the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate) and the price of gold. There are studies that have measured this correlation at -0.82 which is a very strong negative correlation (much stronger than the negative correlation between the price of gold and the dollar). However, this negative correlation is not linear, so you have to be careful.

Real Interest Rates and Gold
Generally, real interest rates are negatively correlated with the price of gold, i.e. rising real rates adversely impact the yellow metal. For example, in the article entitled The Golden Dilemma, Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey found very strong negative correlation between real interest rates and gold prices (from 1997 to 2012), to the tune of -0.82 (while -1 means a perfect negative correlation). The reasoning behind this is that higher interest rates mean higher opportunity costs of holding non-interest bearing assets, such as precious metals, making them relatively less attractive. Basically, gold pays neither dividends nor interest. Thus, it is relatively expensive to hold in the portfolio when real interest rates are high, and relatively cheap when real interest rates are low. In other words, the higher the interest rates are, the higher are carrying costs.

However, the relationship is not linear. Gold prices tend to increase significantly only during the periods of negative real interest rates. This is because negative interest rates, i.e. the situation when the inflation rate is higher than the nominal interest rate (the rate which is actually paid), means that creditors are losing money, therefore they are more prone to buy gold, even though it does not bear interest or dividends. In other words, gold then reclaims its traditional role as money and a store of wealth, which will at least keep pace with inflation to preserve the purchasing power of the capital, while bonds guarantee a real loss at negative real interest rates.
 
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V.I

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The gold and silver charts are at major decision points also. These patterns are going to resolve one way or the other within the next week.
That dovish Powell jawboning did the trick and invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the DXY. It’s interesting that recently all the experts were wrong about about a upside breakout in treasury yields, and now everyone β€œsmart” got caught on the wrong side of the dollar pair trade.

The way that these fakes news events or fed chair statements always coincidentally happen at pivotal moments to reverse trends and keep prices in ranges adds to my suspicion that this is all managed. Just like how Elon Musk always tweets something for algos to run on when Tesla stock is at key levels.
 

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That dovish Powell jawboning did the trick and invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the DXY. It’s interesting that recently all the experts were wrong about about a upside breakout in treasury yields, and now everyone β€œsmart” got caught on the wrong side of the dollar pair trade.
Yeah, and unsurprisingly gold is making a huge move up today. I don't follow the dollar chart so have no idea how legitimate the breakdown might be there, but IMO the gold chart won't confirm a breakout until we get above ~$1855 and stay there. On the silver side the number is ~$28. Also I wouldn't rule out a repeat of 2016 where both the dollar and gold moved up together. As the dollar system breaks down I think we are going to see gold and the dollar start moving more and more in parallel.
 
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Whats you guy's take on the current pm market? Is it even worth continuing to stack?
 

Simp Patrol

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Were getting close to another blue dot. This indicator tracks total has rate, which is picking up, hence the upcoming blue dot.
776g57g7.png
 

Simp Patrol

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Blue dot has predicted significant price increase with 100% accuracy all the way till beginning of data in 2012.
 

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Blue dot has predicted significant price increase with 100% accuracy all the way till beginning of data in 2012.
Uh...how do you explain the blue dots in May and June of 2021 which were followed by price decreases??
 

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Whats you guy's take on the current pm market? Is it even worth continuing to stack?
based on the price action in gold over the last several days, stops are getting run on the downside which usually precedes a huge move up.

We should see a major uptick in the gold stock indexes tomorrow if I'm right. If the gold stock indexes take a huge dump tomorrow then extreme caution is warranted.
 
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Simp Patrol

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Uh...how do you explain the blue dots in May and June of 2021 which were followed by price decreases??
I only see preliminary green ones (with Bitstamp and Coinbase at least).
56e7ge46464f5.png
 
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