Markets and crypto jumped off a cliff. Why?

TheAvenger

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Attention crypto experts ... What is your opinion take on Jeff Berwick??

 
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V.I

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Attention crypto experts ... What is your opinion take on Jeff Berwick??

Um longing something that just nuked 99.999% isn’t buying the dip.

Just in case anyone doesn’t know that already.
 

JR_Rustler_III

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Btw, guess what was the runner up after ETH for hosting DeFi? Terra, the stablecoin that just blew up. And you can imagine the mess in that space with all the Terra locked up as DeFi collateral.
Terra is (well, was) a DeFi coin??
 

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Attention crypto experts ... What is your opinion take on Jeff Berwick??
Only listened to him a couple times. Seems like an interesting guy.

The video you posted was very interesting. He exploited limitations in Binance's exchange software to buy huge amounts of LUNA at the effective bottom. He was smart enough to look at the buy/sell stacks and figure out what was happening, and profit from it.
 
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ghosteroven

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Degen is doing well, I think I have some BNB around somewhere.

Also some of the coins related to the Terra ecosystem are doing well, Anchor and Hawk
 
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TheAvenger

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Only listened to him a couple times. Seems like an interesting guy.

The video you posted was very interesting. He exploited limitations in Binance's exchange software to buy huge amounts of LUNA at the effective bottom. He was smart enough to look at the buy/sell stacks and figure out what was happening, and profit from it.
Thanks, you seem to have a deep grasp on the crypto world which I don't. Jeff gets a lot of praise and a lot of hate as a crypto-anarchist, I just enjoy his take on things, he's entertaining, quirky and "out their" which is okay by me.
 

V.I

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LittleGuinea

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Given that two thirds of all DeFi run on the ETH network, discussion of DeFi necessarily involves ETH.

Btw, guess what was the runner up after ETH for hosting DeFi? Terra, the stablecoin that just blew up. And you can imagine the mess in that space with all the Terra locked up as DeFi collateral.



CuzinEd said β€œPrecious metals are scam for the same reason crypto is. Whenever you have someone claiming that something is more valuable and telling you that what you have is losing value but they want to sell you their valuable stuff you should be smart enough to know it's best to walk away. If not you are just a dumbass.”

As much as I hate to countersignal Cuz’s towering intellect, speculation exists precisely because the future is unknowable.
Someone should take Cuz's hot takes and feed them into an AI that would turn it into a memoir.
 
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JR_Rustler_III

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They say ponzis pump hardest, but they also take market share from the leader hardest too:
Wow, I never realized it was a smart-contract coin. Well, "not anymore", lol.

 
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V.I

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There is literally no downside to selling now and buying again at the end of the bear market, which typically lasts 2-3 years. Anything else is just being in denial about the true risk of owning a speculative asset during an enormous recession. If Bitcoin/crypto starts truly bucking the trend before the general market turns up you can always buy back in but you can't unlose your money if it acts more like Ciena Corporation than Amazon
Absolutely. The evidence that BTC is in a bear market is overwhelming: death cross, price rejected at 1yr MA, NASDAQ bleeding out, etc…

Low 20s is the base case given historical behavior. Any fat tails in the broader markets could spread via contagion and see BTC go even lower.
 

Andrew Anglin

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Absolutely. The evidence that BTC is in a bear market is overwhelming: death cross, price rejected at 1yr MA, NASDAQ bleeding out, etc…

Low 20s is the base case given historical behavior. Any fat tails in the broader markets could spread via contagion and see BTC go even lower.
These charts can't answer the obvious question: who is going to sell that didn't already sell?

Bitcoin sometimes trades like a traditional asset, sometimes it doesn't. But short of some broader financial crash, I don't see the death cross or MA as relevant in calling lower lows. What would drive lower lows is some reason that people need to pull money out of it. But then you have institutions coming in to salvage it.

I'm not saying I know, and I wouldn't be surprised if it touched low twenties - I've been expecting that since the Elon crash - but I don't think it will ride that range very long if it goes there at all.
 

V.I

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These charts can't answer the obvious question: who is going to sell that didn't already sell?

Bitcoin sometimes trades like a traditional asset, sometimes it doesn't. But short of some broader financial crash, I don't see the death cross or MA as relevant in calling lower lows. What would drive lower lows is some reason that people need to pull money out of it. But then you have institutions coming in to salvage it.

I'm not saying I know, and I wouldn't be surprised if it touched low twenties - I've been expecting that since the Elon crash - but I don't think it will ride that range very long if it goes there at all.
Average realized price, the price most people paid for BTC, is $26k. Most people don’t have BTC in wallets, but rather on exchanges. They have it there with a stop loss order at the price they bought in at so they β€œdon’t lose money.”

If you’re a whale that distributed your BTC during the bull market, now you need to reaccumulate your BTC at much lower prices so you can have much more BTC. Knowing the behavior of the average retail investor, you also know that prices are set at the margins. On low volume days you can produce scam wicks or gamma squeezes to trip those stop loss orders and make these retail suckers give up their BTC for cheap. Also, you know that producing a never ending series of lower lows will demoralize them and cause them to capitulate. Psychology never changes. You, Mr. Whale, are not going to allow retail muppets to get off so easy by going to $28k and staying there. That would defeat the entire purpose of the bear market, the accumulation phase, and you’re sitting on a pile of stablecoin cash you need to trade: why dafuq wouldn’t you trip all those juicy stop losses around the average realized price?

P.S. Anyone can talk some dumb foreign whore into letting them use her passport or ID to open a verified crypto exchange account. Obviously they don’t give her the login credentials. This way they can play the markets as a cancelled American on the short side of the trade with margin. Then they use Monero > BTC to get the gains back to their personal BTC wallet.
 
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Most people don’t have BTC in wallets, but rather on exchanges.
Screen Shot 2022-05-25 at 7.03.14 PM.png

And this was back before last month's crypto washout. That number is probably down to 2%, or less. Which is probably part of the reason that Coinbase's stock price got the crap kicked out of it.

 
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V.I

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View attachment 102501

And this was back before last month's crypto washout. That number is probably down to 2%, or less. Which is probably part of the reason that Coinbase's stock price got the crap kicked out of it.



Good find. I know whales are good about knowing β€œnot your keys…” buy also that crypto on exchanges can be potentially rehypothicated and loaned to shorts, which is against their interests.

Retail hodlers and traders, which are a larger group of people that hold overall less percentage of bitcoin, have a bad habit of keeping it on exchanges. And as was said previously, prices are set at the margin.

In any case, that’s a good sign that mitigates downside risk.
 

V.I

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I still can’t get any convincing information on how this Jew Sam Bankman Fried just came out of nowhere and became the biggest player in this space.

Sort of like how a nobody Epstein got hundreds of millions from the Victoria’s Secret jew and Apollo Capital Management jew without any convincing story to explain why they gave it to him and made him a somebody.
 

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They don’t promise farming yields or staking rewards.
I don't think staking rewards are necessarily a Ponzi -- they are simply an inflationary reward that is given to people actively involved in the token vs passive holders. It's a tax levied on those who cannot be bothered to stake.
 

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I don't think staking rewards are necessarily a Ponzi -- they are simply an inflationary reward that is given to people actively involved in the token vs passive holders. It's a tax levied on those who cannot be bothered to stake.
My big problem with PoS is that it is structured to lock up liquidity making it unusable when it is needed most, which makes it an inherently unstable financial system. For me that was the most important learning from the Terra debacle. Note that in Terra's case, it was the stakers who paid the ultimate tax--they got zeroed out.

What do you think about Ethereum's latest failed attempt to move to PoS? Will they ever get this done? What are the odds they get so tired of people criticizing them for not getting it done, and finally pull the trigger on half-baked code, and completely screw the pooch?
 

V.I

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I don't think staking rewards are necessarily a Ponzi -- they are simply an inflationary reward that is given to people actively involved in the token vs passive holders. It's a tax levied on those who cannot be bothered to stake.
Proof of Stake operates a bit like a taxi medallion system: an authority issues a finite number of licenses, and you must buy one from another medallion holder if you want to operate a taxi. The value of the license captures the discounted value of any economic profits that are expected to accrue from operation. The problem for ETH is that unlike New York taxi medallions, there is no moat around the business besides network effect. New entrants can borrow the open source code and produce more β€œmedallions” on a lower cost network, thus defeating the monopoly of the licensing authority.
 
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