Markets and crypto jumped off a cliff. Why?

Arminius

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It only seems retarded to those that don’t understand the ends and means of the technology. Blockchains are not fundamentally computers. They are (or ought to be) ledgers. If blockchains are computers in any sense, they are surely only valuable as decentralized computers. Ethereum is much more expensive than AWS, by just about every conception of cost: write cost, storage cost, write speed, and sync speed. If crypto protocols are as centralized as cloud computing, the debate ends precisely at the point on which they are outcompeted on cost by many orders of magnitude. The benefits must be some feature that follows from decentralization, which in turn must be justified on the basis of superiority to AWS. What benefits are afforded the user of Ethereum that cannot be derived from AWS?
Ethereum β‰  Defi
 

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This was caused by LUNA/UST, not a technology bubble or something. But it was going down some before that already, but definitely not crashing dramatically. But yeah, I guess you were kind of right. I don't care about maximizing my euros (which is implied when you talk about investment) though, I want to hold as little of those as possible.
Ponzi schemes don't collapse during a bull market, timing the market cycle is everything, knowing the specifics just amplifies the results.
 

Arminius

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Ponzi schemes don't collapse during a bull market, timing the market cycle is everything, knowing the specifics just amplifies the results.
Bitcoin is not a ponzi, if that is what you are saying.
 

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Ethereum β‰  Defi
How about Polygon?
Bitcoin is not a ponzi, if that is what you are saying.

There’s a lot here to unpack so I’m going to try to explain this as succinct as possible:

I used ETH as the example because it’s the β€œhosting service” like Amazon AWS for many financial smart contracts and β€œdecentralized apps”. The first thing is that ETH is not decentralized: it reversed the DAO hack, so therefore if its dev team was served a cease and desist order or was threatened with jail unless it did X action, it can and would happen. That’s the litmus test for true decentralization.

Second, the root problem is that blockchains are not optimized to be cloud computers. It’s like trying to use your vehicle’s motor heat to fry an egg. It can do it but it’s expensive and wasteful. Eth’s high gas fees (POS does not fix this) are a function of its timechain bloat. Other protocols that β€œhost” DApps are only faster and cheaper because they are less used. And less used means less secure. Less secure is a non-starter for financial services, since any profitable attack that can happen will eventually happen. So you’re left with a tradeoff between efficiency and security that’s unacceptable for this use case. Finally, DeFi is neither decentralized nor finance, but we’ll save that discussion for another time.

Third. Bitcoin and ledger POW chains are not ponzis. They don’t promise farming yields or staking rewards. POW chains use energy as a price signal anchor and are simply ledgers. People can chose to value them, or not. This valuation is purely exogenous. This is very different from POS chains that both masquerade as money and have pseudo-yields (more tokens printed ex nihilo) without being anchored in expended energy. These are fundamentally ponzis.
 

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That last post might have well been a @Metochan post for me.

Complete gibberish, now get off my lawn.
 

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That last post might have well been a @Metochan post for me.

Complete gibberish, now get off my lawn.
I didn’t want to have to write all that. I tried to avoid it. But people kept bumping it. In fact, it could have been much worse. That was the simplified, easy-to-digest version. This is a topic best left to research papers.

I leave you to get fat and sassy on the lawn grass with some tidbits of wisdom from the forum genius, who has now departed us after wearing out his welcome one too many times. He will be missed:

The stock market is a well know scam. They have been fleecing people with the stock market, especially boomer since the 80's.

Crypto is a new scam. Most of the people involved in crypto are upper income millennials which means a small minority of people. Most millennials are lower middle class. They can't afford to get involved in the scam of buying money. The millennials getting involved in the crypto scam are boomer tier. Just like the actual boomers that fall for the the old precious metals scam run by Jews. Most of the precious metals are owned by Jews.

Precious metals are usually aimed at boomers. It's why you see some obese boomer walking around on the deck of an old mothballed US warship talking about investing in gold/silver and protecting IRA's or whatever shit boomers worry about. Which is one of the reasons why I said I hope the crypto scam collapses soon because I don't want to have to watch some obese middle aged horseshoe balding millennial boomer walking around talking about crypto.

Precious metals are scam for the same reason crypto is. Whenever you have someone claiming that something is more valuable and telling you that what you have is losing value but they want to sell you their valuable stuff you should be smart enough to know it's best to walk away. If not you are just a dumbass. Gold and silver value drops and people sell it off. Some hold onto it of course. But the majority of them sell it. Then they come back again in a few years and buy it back from the Jews at inflated prices after lengthy doom-splain campaigns. Rinse and repeat.

I would say the precious metal boomers are slightly better off because they can actually hold their gold and silver. No one has any physical cryptos. That is if they are boomers that didn't get involved in the paper gold and silver scam.

It's all boomer tier.
 

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Buy land? I have a little, I’d like to get more. Land, like houses, can be inflated to cost a fortune. But they don’t go anywhere, unlike portfolio values. Land and houses can go to zero, but they are still there. I guess what I’m saying is hard assets.
 

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I didn’t want to have to write all that. I tried to avoid it. But people kept bumping it. In fact, it could have been much worse. That was the simplified, easy-to-digest version. This is a topic best left to research papers.

I leave you to get fat and sassy on the lawn grass with some tidbits of wisdom from the forum genius, who has now departed us after wearing out his welcome one too many times. He will be missed:
It's not you its me.
I don't have the capacity for the complexities of another batch of the satans "money".
Carry on.
 

Andrew Anglin

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Yea apologies, in that context I was talking about deflation in asset prices. The macro trend is obviously inflation, and prices of goods rarely go down. Widespread deflation is hard to get in the fiat debt system, but the debt backed nature of it is a massively deflationary force and also explains some of the cyclicality.

There is 30T in national debt and only 22T in M2 money supply - how can you pay off 30T with 22T? you cant. This disparity exists because when money is created the principal is created but the interest is not. If I took a 100k loan from the bank for a house right now at 6%, the bank creates 100k out of thin air, contrary to popular belief they aren't loaning me their reserve cash. I transfer that newly issued currency to the home owner, now I owe the bank 100k principal + 116k interest over the next 30 years. That additional 116k needs to come from other money that also has interest tied to it. As long as new money is flowing into the system, this game of musical chairs works, but it also creates higher future demand for money to pay back the additional debt - sometimes referred to as the Debt Load.

What happens if people suddenly stop taking loans due to rising interest rates? Now there is less new money being made and competition for the existing dollars goes up. Assets will be sold to get dollars driving asset prices down. This is called a liquidity crisis or credit shock - like any ponzi scheme the fiat system requires new money(debt) to go up exponentially just to function.
Well, that's all just usury 101. Good summary tho.

Wouldn't it have been nice if we had like, a religion that banned usury? But then I guess the king would just allow some other parasite group into our countries whose religion celebrates usury, because these mathemagics are so beneficial to rich people in the short term.
This idea that by holding cash you are losing 15% a year isn't really true when you consider where the alternative places that cash would be parked. Unless you were planning on buying gas and groceries with all that money your purchasing power has gone up against most assets in the last 6 months.
Not real estate...

Also, I don't really think anyone is going to lose 50% on crypto. At least not on Bitcoin. Unless they sold it last week.

Aside from the Luna debacle, which I guess you could argue was just a trigger, people are pulling money out to cover losses in the stock market, but there are X number of reasons to believe that BTC is going to decouple from tech stocks.

Overall, I think your analysis is very good, but one thing you don't mention is the threat to the dollar as reserve currency, which pulls the rug completely. A lot of finance people (which I assume you are) are acting like this is some kind of fever dream, but Indian, Chinese and Russian media are taking it for granted that it's already effectively happened and we're just waiting for the shoe to drop. (Libertarians are obviously also saying it in America, but that doesn't really mean much lol.) I watch/read this stuff. I'm not an economy expert, and maybe it is all just anti-American propaganda, but these countries' media all has on their own economics professors saying this very confidently.

Everything you say about the way this system works is true, but the single biggest reason it is able to work like this is that the US is able to export its debt. No other country could run their economy like this, which is why all global economies are extensions of the US economy. Unless the US military is just able to continue bullying the whole world into using the dollar, this is not going to continue indefinitely.

Also, you say it's silly to imagine the fed doesn't have a plan, but the fed isn't running the State Department and the fed wasn't consulted on the Russia sanctions, which have left the entire world in a state of panic. The idea that anyone who gets on the wrong side of the US can have this kind of economic warfare waged against them undermines the entire system the US has built. During WWII, Germany still had free access to the BIS. This stuff has all been considered completely off limits, and now it's not. If India got in a border skirmish with Pakistan, would they be banished from the global economy and have all their reserves stolen? They don't know. I don't even think the State Department knows.

Ultimately, yes, the people who run the government's money are all Wall Street people, and they are the last competent group of people, so I assume they have a plan. But the same people who arranged the Kabul surrender are doing things that could affect the stability of the US economy a lot more than fed policy ever could.
 

Andrew Anglin

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There’s a lot here to unpack so I’m going to try to explain this as succinct as possible:

I used ETH as the example because it’s the β€œhosting service” like Amazon AWS for many financial smart contracts and β€œdecentralized apps”. The first thing is that ETH is not decentralized: it reversed the DAO hack, so therefore if its dev team was served a cease and desist order or was threatened with jail unless it did X action, it can and would happen. That’s the litmus test for true decentralization.

Second, the root problem is that blockchains are not optimized to be cloud computers. It’s like trying to use your vehicle’s motor heat to fry an egg. It can do it but it’s expensive and wasteful. Eth’s high gas fees (POS does not fix this) are a function of its timechain bloat. Other protocols that β€œhost” DApps are only faster and cheaper because they are less used. And less used means less secure. Less secure is a non-starter for financial services, since any profitable attack that can happen will eventually happen. So you’re left with a tradeoff between efficiency and security that’s unacceptable for this use case. Finally, DeFi is neither decentralized nor finance, but we’ll save that discussion for another time.

Third. Bitcoin and ledger POW chains are not ponzis. They don’t promise farming yields or staking rewards. POW chains use energy as a price signal anchor and are simply ledgers. People can chose to value them, or not. This valuation is purely exogenous. This is very different from POS chains that both masquerade as money and have pseudo-yields (more tokens printed ex nihilo) without being anchored in expended energy. These are fundamentally ponzis.
You're muddying the issue/reading the phone book.

Are we talking about DeFi, Bitcoin, or Ethereum? No one here supports Ethereum. It's ridiculous. I guess I was wrong that ADA would replace it, but something is going to replace it and it's not going to be SOL. The only reason Ethereum hasn't gone the way of LUNA is a bunch of hopped up hype and people committed to it, a network of interlocking ponzis.

SOL is literally censoring transactions. Which, as you say, ETH could do now because of all this insane shit they've done over the last two years.

But no one it talking about ETH. I don't ever see anyone on this board talking about it.
 

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No, Amazon AWS is more efficient and cheaper in every metric.
Centralized ledger schemes are always going to be cheaper and more efficient from a computing standpoint (albeit not from a software complexity standpoint), but it requires you to trust the people running the ledger.

The entire global dollar SWIFT banking scheme is a mostly-decentralized ledger system that has worked pretty well for the last ~70 years but unfortunately the pyramid of debt that it spawned combined with the lack of transparency of the ledgers created the biggest ponzi scheme the world has ever seen.
 
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I guess I was wrong that ADA would replace it
ADA is worth holding not because it's going to replace ETH (at this point I doubt it will), but because when ETH catastrophically shits the bed, the price of ADA will do a 10x or maybe even a 100x, because it's one of the few credible alternatives in line after ETH. Once you see that happen, you dump it.
 

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Interesting take. I don't understand how we'd have dollar deflation though? Fiat currencies always inflate until they collapse. We're seeing inflation of commodities and consumer goods as expected but I've heard people like Johnny Bravo talk about upcoming deflation and I don't get how it'd be possible with a ballooning money supply.
You can have price inflation (i.e. increase in the prices of a lot of things that you actually have to buy every day to live) and monetary disinflation (i.e. the dollar supply not growing enough to meet the global economy's needs) at the same time. Yay!

The money creation mechanism has been breaking down for going on 15 years now. Dollars are created two ways: (1) by banks lending them into existence, and (2) the Federal Reserve lending them into existence when the US Congress authorizes them to do so via deficit spending. (1) is the part that has been breaking down, and (2) has been there to fix it, except for the fact that Congress spends virtually all of that money in extremely unproductive ways, i.e. funding negro fatherless baby creation, illegal immigration, defense spending, outright fraud (Medicare/Medicaid fraud, HUD/FHA fraud, etc) and criminal activity.

The third way to create dollars is, the Federal Reserve can buy assets (Treasury instruments, MBS, corporate debt, and--soon, I'm betting--"high quality" equities) and permanently parking them on their balance sheet, which I'm betting they will start doing again sometime before the end of the year

In the meantime, Congress has to keep the spending up in order to get fresh T-bills into the financial system, because freshly-minted T-bills are like superpowered money that banks can pyramid up by 10x to 30x.

When this thing gives way, it's gonna be spectacular.
 

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Overall, I think your analysis is very good, but one thing you don't mention is the threat to the dollar as reserve currency, which pulls the rug completely. A lot of finance people (which I assume you are) are acting like this is some kind of fever dream, but Indian, Chinese and Russian media are taking it for granted that it's already effectively happened and we're just waiting for the shoe to drop. (Libertarians are obviously also saying it in America, but that doesn't really mean much lol.) I watch/read this stuff. I'm not an economy expert, and maybe it is all just anti-American propaganda, but these countries' media all has on their own economics professors saying this very confidently.
The "finance people" claim that "there is no alternative" to the US dollar because "the economy simply can't run efficiently without having a common settlement currency". That logic is correct, but it has a weak point, which is found in the word "efficiently". The psychopaths in Washington DC have permanently torpedoed the "marvelous efficiency" of the US dollar reserve system by arbitrarily seizing people's dollar reserves. Generally speaking, this is being done on purpose in order to collapse the economy and create global chaos over the next five or ten years, and then put the blame on "reckless and incompetent national governments that brought the world to the brink of destruction", at which point they will impose World Government.

In the meantime, the nation-states who produce things that the world desperately needs--i.e., oil, gas, electricity, uranium, metals, grain, livestock, fruit, vegetables, and basic manufactured goods--are going to demand that the goods they sell be paid for in their own currency. The logic being that the nation-states that produce these valuable things need to currency-match their income with their expenses. If you are Russia, your costs to produce oil are all denominated in rubles, but--until a few months ago at least--your revenues were denominated in dollars. This mismatch created a problem that had to be continuously resolved in the global dollar financial markets, using a myriad of different financial engineering currency risk management tools. Well, now those tools don't work any more, which means you need to conduct trade the old-fashioned way: demand payment for your goods in your own currency, and make the customer do all the hard work associated with the currency mismatch. From Russia's point of view, this has had a nifty side effect of increasing the ruble's value relative to the dollar (which incidentally suggests that all the currency engineering was a rigged game that put large amounts of money in Jew pockets, but I digress). This will certainly make international trade much less "efficient", but there is nothing to be done about that now. Eventually new systems will spring up to manage these inefficiencies, and life will go on. Until then there are going to be a lot of problems. The big losers here are the American people, as a lot of dollars that have been sequestered overseas are going to start coming home. But that process of disgorgement will take years, and in the short term we will see actual dollar shortages as the Fed flails around trying to stop supply-chain-induced price inflation by pushing the global economy into recession. That won't do anything to fix inflation, and they probably know that, but they are going to do it anyway because of politics. The best part? The economy was already going into recession thanks to the massive supply chain disruptions caused by the covid hoax and the Ukraine war, and now the Fed is going to make that recession even worse.
 

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I don't really think anyone is going to lose 50% on crypto. At least not on Bitcoin. Unless they sold it last week.
There is literally no downside to selling now and buying again at the end of the bear market, which typically lasts 2-3 years. Anything else is just being in denial about the true risk of owning a speculative asset during an enormous recession. If Bitcoin/crypto starts truly bucking the trend before the general market turns up you can always buy back in but you can't unlose your money if it acts more like Ciena Corporation than Amazon
 

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There is literally no downside to selling now and buying again at the end of the bear market, which typically lasts 2-3 years. Anything else is just being in denial about the true risk of owning a speculative asset during an enormous recession. If Bitcoin/crypto starts truly bucking the trend before the general market turns up you can always buy back in but you can't unlose your money if it acts more like Ciena Corporation than Amazon
It's not going any lower.
 

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There is literally no downside to selling now and buying again at the end of the bear market, which typically lasts 2-3 years. Anything else is just being in denial about the true risk of owning a speculative asset during an enormous recession. If Bitcoin/crypto starts truly bucking the trend before the general market turns up you can always buy back in but you can't unlose your money if it acts more like Ciena Corporation than Amazon
You're not buying bitcoin - you're converting unbacked fiat into a hard asset that can't be seized by banks or governments.

Go ahead and read that last part again.

Also, deciding what a bear market is and how long it lasts is on par with reading Tarot cards or hiring Haitian voodoo priests to roll dried chicken bones on the dirt floor of a hut and discern the future.

You don't know.
 

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ADA is worth holding not because it's going to replace ETH (at this point I doubt it will), but because when ETH catastrophically shits the bed, the price of ADA will do a 10x or maybe even a 100x, because it's one of the few credible alternatives in line after ETH. Once you see that happen, you dump it.
I have never owned any ETH.

Why would ETH fall off a cliff? When I see interesting Defi apps on other chains they normally turn out to be cloned from ETH, such as Tornado cash being cloned into Shade cash, or the various collateral lending systems.

Old fags love ETH and they are heavily invested. People on other chains still swap into and out of ETH to perform transactions.

BTC could be manipulated lower to shake retail loose and put it into the hands of hedge funds and their clients. But it is probably headed to the moon eventually.
 
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Why would ETH fall off a cliff? When I see interesting Defi apps on other chains they normally turn out to be cloned from ETH, such as Tornado cash being cloned into Shade cash, or the various collateral lending systems.
Charles Hoskinson, who was on the original ETH development team, became convinced years ago that ETH is built on a code architecture that can't scale, and can't be fixed. That's why he created ADA.

Ever hear of the DAO hack?


Besides that, look at all the problems ETH is having going from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. If they botch that switchover we could get a "look out below" moment for the price of ETH.
 

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How about Polygon?
I have a lot of trouble getting transactions through with Polygon. Also it is a dot head chain, and the dot heads dump their tokens as soon as they veste, suppressing the price.

Ever hear of the DAO hack?
I remember this story from back in the day.

ETH could face a deadly dump if they botch some of their technical challenges. On the other hand, they could always use another technology and simply allow people on ETH to swap their tokens for the new system. Communities are very important. Even shitcoins with big communities can finesse them into other projects (e.g. games, NFTs, exhanges, launch platforms for new projects etc.)
 

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ETH could face a deadly dump if they botch some of their technical challenges. On the other hand, they could always use another technology and simply allow people on ETH to swap their tokens for the new system.
Huh? That's exactly what they are trying to do with the move to proof-of-stake. They've been trying for years now, and so far they've missed every deadline they've set for themselves. They just pushed their deadline out again to "sometime later this year". These are not people who look like they know what they are doing.
 

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Cave Beast
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It's not going any lower
What makes you so sure?
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/17...raising-rates-until-inflation-comes-down.html

The fed is saying that they’re not going to stop raising rates until inflation comes back down to 2% Bitcoin can easily drop more before going higher again a long with many other assets. The dollar can still rise significantly in the short run before it ultimately pukes. Bitcoin won’t make a final bottom until you see a bunch of shit coins go under. Everywhere I went for the past year, all I heard was people buying cryptos. These people I’m telling you about are complete morons & financially illiterate. We won’t have a final bottom until those people are literally flushed down the toilet. In the short run, btc is oversold. I’m expecting a rally for a couple weeks.
 
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V.I

Thanks greatest ally for this incredible bargain
Old World Underground
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You're muddying the issue/reading the phone book.

Are we talking about DeFi, Bitcoin, or Ethereum? No one here supports Ethereum. It's ridiculous. I guess I was wrong that ADA would replace it, but something is going to replace it and it's not going to be SOL. The only reason Ethereum hasn't gone the way of LUNA is a bunch of hopped up hype and people committed to it, a network of interlocking ponzis.

SOL is literally censoring transactions. Which, as you say, ETH could do now because of all this insane shit they've done over the last two years.

But no one it talking about ETH. I don't ever see anyone on this board talking about it.
Given that two thirds of all DeFi run on the ETH network, discussion of DeFi necessarily involves ETH.

Btw, guess what was the runner up after ETH for hosting DeFi? Terra, the stablecoin that just blew up. And you can imagine the mess in that space with all the Terra locked up as DeFi collateral.

It's not going any lower.
CuzinEd said β€œPrecious metals are scam for the same reason crypto is. Whenever you have someone claiming that something is more valuable and telling you that what you have is losing value but they want to sell you their valuable stuff you should be smart enough to know it's best to walk away. If not you are just a dumbass.”

As much as I hate to countersignal Cuz’s towering intellect, speculation exists precisely because the future is unknowable.
 
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